CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Monetary policy refers to any of a number of government measures undertaken to affect financial markets and credit conditions with the ultimate objective of influencing the overall behaviour of the economy. In Nigeria, monetary policy is the responsibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria, a federal crown corporation that implements its policy decisions largely through its ability to alter the Nigerian money supply. The money supply is that portion of the financial wealth of Nigerian households which has sufficient liquidity to be considered money. At the least it includes coin, currency, and checking account deposits in chartered banks, all of which have perfect liquidity in that they represent, at face value, an immediate means of payment for purchases made. Some economists broaden the money-supply definition by including additional chartered-bank deposits (e.g, savings accounts) or deposits in other financial institutions such as trust companies or credit unions. The responsibility for monetary policy formulation rests with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Monetary policy objective is couched in terms of maintaining price stability and promoting non-inflationary growth. The primary means adopted to achieve this objective is to set aggregate money supply targets and to rely on the open market operations (OMO) and other policy instruments to achieve the target. Monetary policy is the process by which the government, central bank, or monetary authority of a country controls
(i) the supply of money,
(ii) availability of money, and
(iii) cost of money or rate of interest, in order to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the growth and stability of the economy Ball Laurence, 1999. Monetary theory provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy. Monetary policy is referred to as either being an expansionary policy, or a contractionary policy, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy, and a contractionary policy decreases the total money supply. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates, while contractionary policy involves raising interest rates in order to combat inflation. Monetary policy is contrasted with fiscal policy, which refers to government borrowing, spending and taxation. Monetary policy rests on the relationship between the rates of interest in an economy, that is the price at which money can be borrowed, and the total supply of money. Monetary policy uses a variety of tools to control one or both of these, to influence outcomes like economic growth, inflation, exchange rates with other currencies and unemployment. Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank, the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and thus influence the interest rate (in order to achieve policy goals).
The beginning of monetary policy as such comes from the late 19th century, where it was used to maintain the gold standard. A policy is referred to as contractionary if it reduces the size of the money supply or raises the interest rate. An expansionary policy increases the size of the money supply, or decreases the interest rate. Furthermore, monetary policies are described as follows: accommodative, if the interest rate set by the central monetary authority is intended to create economic growth; neutral, if it is intended neither to create growth nor combat inflation; or tight if intended to reduce inflation. There are several monetary policy tools available to achieve these ends: increasing interest rates by fiat; reducing the monetary base; and increasing reserve requirements. All have the effect of contracting the money supply; and, if reversed, expand the money supply. Since the 1970s, monetary policy has generally been formed separately from fiscal policy. Even prior to the 1970s, the Bretton Woods system still ensured that most nations would form the two policies separately. Usually, the short term goal of open market operations is to achieve a specific short term interest rate target. In other instances, monetary policy might instead entail the targeting of a specific exchange rate relative to some foreign currency or else relative to gold. For example, in the case of the USA the Federal Reserve targets the federal funds rate, the rate at which member banks lend to one another overnight. The other primary means of conducting monetary policy include:
(i) Discount window lending (lender of last resort);
(ii) Fractional deposit lending (changes in the reserve requirement);
(iii) Moral suasion (cajoling certain market players to achieve specified outcomes);
(iv) “Open mouth operations” (talking monetary policy with the market). Monetary policy is primarily associated with interest rate and credit. For many centuries there were only two forms of monetary policy:
(i) Decisions about coinage;
(ii) Decisions to print paper money to create credit. Interest rates, while now thought of as part of monetary authority, were not generally coordinated with the other forms of monetary policy during this time. Monetary policy was seen as an executive decision, and was generally in the hands of the authority with seignior age, or the power to coin. With the advent of larger trading networks came the ability to set the price between gold and silver, and the price of the local currency to foreign currencies. This official price could be enforced by law, even if it varied from the market price. With the creation of the Bank of England in 1694, which acquired the responsibility to print notes and back them with gold, the idea of monetary policy as independent of executive action began to be established. The goal of monetary policy was to maintain the value of the coinage, print notes which would trade at par to specie, and prevent coins from leaving circulation. The establishment of central banks by industrializing nations was associated then with the desire to maintain the nation’s peg to the gold standard, and to trade in a narrow band with other gold-backed currencies. To accomplish this end, central banks as part of the gold standard began setting the interest rates that they charged, both their own borrowers, and other banks who required liquidity. The maintenance of a gold standard required almost monthly adjustments of interest rates. During the 1870-1920 periods the industrialized nations set up central banking systems, with one of the last being the Federal Reserve in 1913. By this point the role of the central bank as the “lender of last resort” was understood. It was also increasingly understood that interest rates had an effect on the entire economy, in no small part because of the marginal revolution in economics, which focused on how many more, or how many fewer, people would make a decision based on a change in the economic trade-offs. It also became clear that there was a business cycle, and economic theory began understanding the relationship of interest rates to that cycle. (Nevertheless, steering a whole economy by influencing the interest rate has often been described as trying to steer an oil tanker with a canoe paddle.) Research by Cass Business School has also suggested that perhaps it is the central bank policies of expansionary and contractionary policies that are causing the economic cycle; evidence can be found by looking at the lack of cycles in economies before central banking policies existed. Batini, Nicoletta, 2003. Monetarist macroeconomists have sometimes advocated simply increasing the monetary supply at a low, constant rate, as the best way of maintaining low inflation and stable output growth.
However, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker tried this policy, starting in October 1979, it was found to be impractical, because of the highly unstable relationship between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables. . Therefore, monetary decisions today take into account a wider range of factors, such as: short term interest rates; long term interest rates;velocity of money through the economy; exchange rates; credit quality; bonds and equities (corporate ownership and debt); government versus private sector spending/savings; international capital flows of money on large scales; Financial derivatives such as options, swaps, futures contracts, etc. The sometimes complex financial transactions that make big business (especially international business) easier and safer would be much more difficult if not impossible. Moreover, shifting risk to different people/companies that specialize in monitoring and using risk can turn any financial risk into a known dollar amount and therefore make business predictable and more profitable for everyone involved.